Golden Fibonacci

Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) — The dollar traded near a two-month high against the yen on speculation the Federal Reserve will withdraw stimulus measures as the economy recovers.

The dollar may gain against the euro for a third day before a report economists said will show U.S. manufacturing expanded in December for a fifth month, adding to signs the economy is gaining momentum. The yen may extend losses against its major counterparts on prospects Japan’s struggling economy will make the Bank of Japan the last central bank to raise interest rates.

“Ongoing gains in the dollar are based on U.S. economic fundamentals and the Fed’s outlook,” said Daisaku Ueno, president at Gaitame.Com Research Institute Ltd. in Tokyo, a unit of Japan’s largest currency margin company. “It’s not that the Fed will raise rates soon, but it’s preparing tools to reduce an oversupply of dollars toward an exit. The dollar will be bought as long as this view remains intact.” Ream more »

Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) — Most Asian stocks gained as commodity producers advanced on higher oil and metal prices, overshadowing losses by financial companies after National Australia Bank Ltd. said it will sell stock.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, added 1.3 percent. James Hardie Industries NV, the top seller of home siding in the U.S., rose 2.1 percent in Sydney after a U.S. government report showed housing starts increased. AXA Asia Pacific Holdings Ltd. soared 12 percent after National Australia Bank said it agreed to buy AXA Asia’s Australian and New Zealand businesses. Shares of National Australia Bank were suspended from trading after the lender said it will sell A$1.5 billion ($1.3 billion) in stock to help fund the purchase.

About six stocks rose for every four that dropped on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, which added 0.1 percent to 119.69 as of 9:56 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge has jumped 33 percent in 2009, set for its biggest annual gain since 2003. Ream more »

Dec. 16 (Bloomberg) — Some of the biggest buyers of gold may be sending the strongest signal to sell it, if past performance is indicative of future results.

Central banks, holding about 18 percent of all gold ever mined, are expanding their reserves for the first time in a generation as a nine-year bull market drives prices to a record.

The banks will buy 13.8 million ounces (429 metric tons) this year, worth $15.5 billion, for the first net expansion in reserves since 1988, New York-based researcher CPM Group estimates. Gold fell 15 percent that year and took another 15 years to trade again at the same price as central banks from Switzerland to the U.K. cut their holdings.

India, China and Russia are now adding to reserves as gold nears its longest winning streak since at least 1948. They’re joining a rush as investors in exchange-traded funds amass holdings to rival the biggest central banks. Clive Capital LLC, manager of the biggest commodities hedge fund, had its best return since May last month, led by gains in precious metals. Ream more »

Dec. 15 (Bloomberg) — Asian mining stocks rose after copper and platinum prices climbed. Shipping companies paced declines among Japanese equities after cargo rates fell.

Platinum Australia Ltd., which owns mines in South Africa and Australia, surged 4.6 percent in Sydney. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, climbed 1 percent as JPMorgan Chase & Co. upgraded the stock on higher commodity- price forecasts. Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd., Japan’s No. 2 shipping line, fell 1.3 percent after the Baltic Dry Index slumped for a sixth day.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed at 120.45 as of 10:22 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge has climbed 35 percent this year, set for its biggest annual gain since 2003, on signs government spending packages and lower interest rates are reviving the global economy. Ream more »

Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) — Most of the people who say they lost money with Bernard Madoff have had their claims denied because they invested with the con man indirectly or withdrew more money than they put in.

Trustee Irving Picard has turned down about 9,900 of the 11,500 people whose claims he has analyzed, with another 4,500 cases still to be looked into. The 1,600 people whose claims he has approved have losses totaling $4.69 million, though they’ll get at most $500,000 to begin with, pending the results of Picard’s suits against people he regards as beneficiaries of the biggest Ponzi scheme in history.

One year after Madoff’s arrest in his penthouse apartment in Manhattan on Dec. 11, 2008, exposing the swindle and ruining thousands of investors, the denial of most claims and the approval of some at lesser amounts than victims sought has emerged as the biggest dispute in the case. Many alleged victims argue they should be paid years’ worth of fake profit. Ream more »

Dec. 8 (Bloomberg) — Stocks, gold and oil fell while the dollar rallied after Dubai World’s Nakheel PJSC lost $3.65 billion, Fitch Ratings downgraded Greece’s credit and German industrial production unexpectedly dropped.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index declined 1.1 percent at 4:31 p.m. in New York, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slumped 1 percent. Gold dropped for a third day in New York. Crude posted a fifth consecutive retreat. The yield on Greece’s two-year notes rose the most since 1998. The dollar appreciated against 14 of the 16 most-active currencies.

Concern that Dubai World would default on $59 billion in debt roiled markets last month, spurring speculation that the recovery in the global financial system would stall. Moody’s Investors Service said deteriorating public finances in the U.S. and U.K. may test their Aaa ratings. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told the Washington Economic Club yesterday that the economy faces “formidable headwinds.” Ream more »

Dec. 8 (Bloomberg) — The Japanese government unveiled a 7.2 trillion yen ($81 billion) economic stimulus package amid signs the recovery and Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama’s popularity are waning.

Hatoyama’s first stimulus plan includes 3.5 trillion yen to help regions, 600 billion yen for employment and 800 billion yen on environmental initiatives, the Cabinet said today in a statement in Tokyo. The measures had been delayed because of haggling within the coalition government.

The Democratic Party of Japan, which took office in September pledging to support households battered by two decades of economic stagnation, is grappling with a slide in prices and a surging yen. The government will say third-quarter economic growth was slower than initially reported in revised figures tomorrow, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Ream more »

Dec. 7 (Bloomberg) — Asian stoacks advanced for the fifth time in six days as the strengthening dollar buoyed makers of products from cars to clothes and Japanese chip-related shares climbed after Nomura Holdings Inc. boosted investment ratings.

Sony Corp., an electronics maker that gets almost 25 percent of sales in the U.S., climbed 3.8 percent in Tokyo as the dollar advanced following an unexpected drop in U.S. unemployment. Billabong International Ltd., a clothing maker that gets more than half its revenue in the Americas, added 3.3 percent. Advantest Corp., the world’s biggest maker of memory- chip testers, climbed 2.4 percent in Tokyo after Nomura turned “bullish” on the Japanese chip-making equipment industry.

“Japanese and Australian exporters will benefit at the margin from a more robust U.S. economy and its perceived increased appetite for imports,” said Tim Schroeders, who helps manage $1.1 billion at Pengana Capital Ltd. in Melbourne. Ream more »

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