Golden Fibonacci

February is always an exciting month for followers of Warren Buffett and his closely watched firm Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A, BRK-B). At the end of the month, Buffett will publish his annual letter, which is always filled with the Oracle of Omaha’s insights, from the technical to the folksy.

Prior to that, though, investors will get to see where Buffett has been placing his bets of late. The disclosure of Berkshire’s end-of-Q4 holdings will be made public in about two weeks.

A look at the performance of Buffett’s holdings from the start of Q4 shows that his publicly traded investments have been mostly in the black. During that period, Buffett has seen gains from names like American Express (AXP), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Wellpoint (WLP). Each of the stocks is up by more than 15% since the end of Q3.

Buffett also made a special investment (not listed among Berkshire’s publicly traded holdings) in Goldman Sachs (GS) at the height of the crisis that has reaped huge gains. Continue

Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) — The Obama administration’s proposal to tax financial firms may annually cost JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. more than $1.5 billion each, hinder the industry’s recovery and stifle investor interest in bank stocks, analysts and investors said.

“This is not conducive to an investor-friendly environment,” said Peter Sorrentino, who helps manage $13.8 billion at Huntington Asset Advisors in Cincinnati. “Profit will be hampered by this tax. It keeps the industry hobbled and it never gets healthy or out from under the thumb of the government.”

Bank of America, the largest U.S. lender, would owe $1.53 billion a year, or 18 cents a share, while JPMorgan, the No. 2 U.S. bank, would owe $1.52 billion, or 38 cents a share, according to a report today by Wisco Research LLC analyst Sean Ryan. The tax would amount to 22 percent of Bank of America’s expected 2010 earnings per share and 12 percent of JPMorgan’s, Ryan wrote. Continue

Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) — The dollar rose against the yen, ending three days of losses, after Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser said policy makers must raise rates before unemployment falls to an acceptable level.

The U.S. currency advanced to 91.24 yen as of 9:26 a.m. in Tokyo from 90.98 in New York yesterday, when it declined to 90.73, the weakest since Dec. 21. The dollar was at $1.4483 per euro from $1.4486. The yen traded at 132.13 per euro from 131.79.

To contact the reporters on this story: Yoshiaki Nohara in Tokyo at ynohara1@bloomberg.net.

Jan. 11 (Bloomberg) — Indonesia may have to reward investors with higher yields than the Philippines to borrow $4 billion as an emerging-markets bond rally fades.

Southeast Asia’s largest economy may sell 10-year debt at a yield of about 6 percent, or 2.2 percentage points more than similar maturity U.S. Treasuries, according to Aberdeen Asset Management Plc and Vegagest SGR SpA. The Philippines, whose bonds carry the same BB- rating as Indonesia’s from Standard & Poor’s, priced 2020 securities last week to yield 5.67 percent.

“If Indonesia does come to the market as planned with $4 billion of issuance, that will come with a premium,” said Edwin Gutierrez, who oversees $5 billion in emerging-market debt for Aberdeen in London. “There’s a big rush to get out the door before U.S. Treasury yields rise further.’” Continue

Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) — Asian stocks rose, lifting the MSCI Asia Pacific Index for a fifth day, as the improved outlook for the global economy drove up commodity prices.

Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third-largest mining company, added 0.9 percent in Sydney after metal prices in London gained the most in two months. Nippon Yusen K.K. jumped 4.6 percent after Morgan Stanley rated the stock “equal weight.” Samsung Electronics Co., Asia’s biggest semiconductor maker, lost 1.1 percent even after the company swung to profit from a year- earlier loss in the fourth quarter.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5 percent to 124.72 as of 9:55 a.m. in Tokyo, with three stocks gaining for every two that declined. The gauge’s 4.1 percent advance in the past five trading days has driven its 14-day relative strength index to 69 today, nearing the 70 threshold some traders use as a sign to sell. Continue

Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) — Singapore’s economy shrank for the first time in three quarters as weaker manufacturing output interrupted the island’s recovery from its deepest recession since independence in 1965.

Gross domestic product contracted an annualized 6.8 percent from the previous three months last quarter after climbing a revised 14.9 percent from July to September, the trade ministry said in a statement today. That was worse than the median estimate for a 2.1 percent decline in a Bloomberg News survey of eight economists. The economy shrank 2.1 percent in 2009.

The island’s outlook is closely linked to global conditions and a “sluggish recovery” in demand for exports by companies such as Stats Chippac Ltd. will moderate growth prospects, the government said in November. The opening of two casino-resorts in the coming months will help support the economy this year, according to Nomura Holdings Inc. Continue

Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) — The dollar traded near a two-month high against the yen on speculation the Federal Reserve will withdraw stimulus measures as the economy recovers.

The dollar may gain against the euro for a third day before a report economists said will show U.S. manufacturing expanded in December for a fifth month, adding to signs the economy is gaining momentum. The yen may extend losses against its major counterparts on prospects Japan’s struggling economy will make the Bank of Japan the last central bank to raise interest rates.

“Ongoing gains in the dollar are based on U.S. economic fundamentals and the Fed’s outlook,” said Daisaku Ueno, president at Gaitame.Com Research Institute Ltd. in Tokyo, a unit of Japan’s largest currency margin company. “It’s not that the Fed will raise rates soon, but it’s preparing tools to reduce an oversupply of dollars toward an exit. The dollar will be bought as long as this view remains intact.” Continue

Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) — Most Asian stocks gained as commodity producers advanced on higher oil and metal prices, overshadowing losses by financial companies after National Australia Bank Ltd. said it will sell stock.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, added 1.3 percent. James Hardie Industries NV, the top seller of home siding in the U.S., rose 2.1 percent in Sydney after a U.S. government report showed housing starts increased. AXA Asia Pacific Holdings Ltd. soared 12 percent after National Australia Bank said it agreed to buy AXA Asia’s Australian and New Zealand businesses. Shares of National Australia Bank were suspended from trading after the lender said it will sell A$1.5 billion ($1.3 billion) in stock to help fund the purchase.

About six stocks rose for every four that dropped on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, which added 0.1 percent to 119.69 as of 9:56 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge has jumped 33 percent in 2009, set for its biggest annual gain since 2003. Continue

Dec. 16 (Bloomberg) — Some of the biggest buyers of gold may be sending the strongest signal to sell it, if past performance is indicative of future results.

Central banks, holding about 18 percent of all gold ever mined, are expanding their reserves for the first time in a generation as a nine-year bull market drives prices to a record.

The banks will buy 13.8 million ounces (429 metric tons) this year, worth $15.5 billion, for the first net expansion in reserves since 1988, New York-based researcher CPM Group estimates. Gold fell 15 percent that year and took another 15 years to trade again at the same price as central banks from Switzerland to the U.K. cut their holdings.

India, China and Russia are now adding to reserves as gold nears its longest winning streak since at least 1948. They’re joining a rush as investors in exchange-traded funds amass holdings to rival the biggest central banks. Clive Capital LLC, manager of the biggest commodities hedge fund, had its best return since May last month, led by gains in precious metals. Continue

Dec. 15 (Bloomberg) — Asian mining stocks rose after copper and platinum prices climbed. Shipping companies paced declines among Japanese equities after cargo rates fell.

Platinum Australia Ltd., which owns mines in South Africa and Australia, surged 4.6 percent in Sydney. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, climbed 1 percent as JPMorgan Chase & Co. upgraded the stock on higher commodity- price forecasts. Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd., Japan’s No. 2 shipping line, fell 1.3 percent after the Baltic Dry Index slumped for a sixth day.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed at 120.45 as of 10:22 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge has climbed 35 percent this year, set for its biggest annual gain since 2003, on signs government spending packages and lower interest rates are reviving the global economy. Continue